Supply is Not the Answer for the Future
The New York Times printed a column in June from a math professor,
Evar D. Nering, titled "The Mirage of a Growing Fuel Supply."
Here are a few of the salient points that use math to help us make
decisions about resource use:
If we have a 100-year supply of a natural resource like petroleum,
that is, if we continue to use it at our current rate it will last
100 years, and if we increase our consumption of that resource by
5% each year, the resource will only last 36 years.
If we underestimated the supply and actually have 1,000 years worth
of the resource at our current rate of consumption, but continue
to increase consumption by 5% annually, the resource will be depleted
in 79 years. If we actually have 10,000 years of the resource but
increase consumption by 5% per year, it will last only 125 years.
If consumption is allowed to grow at 5% per year, a doubling of
supply will add 14 years to the above example. However, reducing
the increased growth to just 2.5% per year will add 36 years. And
not increasing our rate of consumption will bring us back to the
original 100-year projection. If we reduce our rate of consumption
it will last even longer.
Nering argues that building more power plants and drilling for
more oil is the wrong thing to do since both will encourage increased
consumption. For example, increasing gas mileage in automobiles
will not make the world’s oil supply last longer if people
then drive more miles.
Conservation/efficiency and non-depletable renewable energy is
a better way.
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How Long the Resource Supply Will Last
|
|
At Current
Rate of Use
|
With 5% Annual
Increased Rate of Use
|
With 2.5% Annual
Increased Rate of Use
|
| 100 years |
36 years
|
72 years
|
| 1,000 years |
79 years
|
158 years
|
| 10,000 years |
125 years
|
250 years
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